Predicting Financial Crisis With Artifıcial Neural Network Model: An Application For Turkey
Keywords:Financial Crisis, Early Warning System, Artificial Neural Network
Financial crises have become a topic that has been discussed more in the post-1980 period. Capitalism, by its nature, tends to lead to a crisis. Therefore, many crises have occurred in the historical process. The interest in financial crises increased after 1980. The main reason for this is the increase the effect of financial crises and their effects of global. Financial crises have sociological effects besides their destructive effects on the country's economy. This feature of crises has lead the people working on this problem to find the factors that cause crises. One of the main issues in creating new financial architecture is the determination of financial crisis indicators. Many different methods are used to identify crisis indicators. These models are commonly referred to as the early warning system (EWS). The main reason that pushes economists to work on this issue is the foreign exchange loss, excessive recession and negative growth rates created by financial crises in the countries. Therefore, it will be of great benefit to define reliable indicators that will predict financial crises. Although the factors that cause crises are known, financial crises are reappearing. In studies related to the predictability of financial crises, it is aimed to identify and monitor the variables likely to cause problems in the future. In this context the study, data from the 2008 crisis in Turkey will be used. Which indicators should be monitored for the next crisis will be tried to be determined by using artificial neural network model.
AKEL, Veli, BAYRAMOĞLU, Mehmet Fatih, “Kriz Dönemlerinde Yapay Sinir Ağları İle Finansal Öngörüde Bulunma: İmkb 100 Endeksi Örneği”, International Symposium on International Capital Flows and Emerging Markets, Balıkesir, Bandırma, 24-27 Nisan 2008.
ALTINTAŞ, Halil, ÖZ, Bülent, “Para Krizlerinin Sinyal Yaklaşımıyla Öngörülebilirliği: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi,Cilt 7, Sayı 2, 2007.
BELL, James, “Leading Indicator Models of Banking Crises”, Bank of England, Financial Stability Review: December 2000.
BENLİ, Yasemin Keskin, “Bankalarda Mali Başarısızlığın Öngörülmesi Lojistik Regresyon ve Yapay Sinir ağı Karşılaştırması”, Gazi Üniversitesi Endüstriyel Sanatlar Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı 16, 2005.
ÇEVİŞ, İsmail, Para Krizlerine Ampirik Bir Yaklaşım, SPK, Yayın No:187, 2005.
ERKEKOĞLU, Hatice, BİLGİLİ, Emine, “Parasal Krizlerin Tahmin Edilmesi: Teori ve Uygulama”, Erciyes Üniversitesi, İİBF Dergisi, Sayı 24, 2005.
ESQUIVEL, Gerardo, LARRAİN, Felipe B., “Explaining Currency Crises”, Harvard Institute of Development Discussion Papers, 1998
HAMZAÇEBİ, Coşkun, KUTAY, Fevzi, “Yapay Sinir Ağları İle Türkiye Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketiminin 2010 Yılına Kadar Tahmini”, Gazi Üniversitesi, Müh. Mim. Fak. Dergisi, 2004.
IMF, “Early Warning System Models: The Next Steps Forward”, Global Financial Stability Report March 2002.
KAMIN, Steven B., SCHINDLER, John W., SAMUEL, Shawna L., “The Contrıbutıon Of Domestıc And External Factors To Emergıng Market Devaluatıon Crıses: An Early Warnıng Systems Approach”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 711
KIM, Tae Yoon ve diğerleri, “Usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks for Early Warning System
of Economic Crisis”, Expert Systems with Applications, 2004.
KRUGER, Mark, OSAKWE, Patrick N., PAGE, Jennifer, “Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises:
An Empirical Analysis”, Bank of Canada, 1998.
LEE, Yu-Cheng, TENG, Hsiao-Lin, “Predicting the financial crisis by Mahalanobis-Taguchi system –Examples of Taiwan’s Electronic Sector”, Expert Systems with Applications, 2009.
LESTANO, Jan Jakob, KUPER, Gerard H., “Indicators of Financial Crises Do Work ! An Early-Warning System for Six Asian Countries”, Workshop on Southeast Asia, University of Groningen, May 2003.
PİCAK, Murat, YILMAZ, Sema, GİRAY, Yavuz, “Küresel Ekonomik Sistemde Finansal Krizleri Önleme ve Yönetme Sorunsalı”, Mevzuat Dergisi, Yıl 11, Sayı:137, Mayıs 2009, http://www.mevzuatdergisi.com/
SEZGİN, Funda H., ÖZDAMAR, Elif Özge, “Finansal Krizlerin Öngörülmesinde Probit Model Yaklaşımı ve Türkiye Uygulaması”, Marmara Üniversitesi, Uluslararası Finans Sempozyumu 2008.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2020 International Journal of Social, Political and Economic Research
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.